Combat Edge Intelligence

Ryan Jensen vs Tafon Nchukwi

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-8-0Record7-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'10"Height6'0"
TBDReach77"
175 lbsWeight190 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamTeam Lloyd Irvin

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ryan JensenNow 1586
If they win+16→ 1602
If they lose-16→ 1570
Tafon NchukwiNow 1588
If they win+16→ 1604
If they lose-16→ 1572

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1583 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1619 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.94
Sig. strikes / min
5.57
40%
Strike accuracy
53%
3.41
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.11
59%
Strike defense
54%
1.76
Takedown avg.
0.76
50%
Takedown accuracy
57%
31%
Takedown defense
65%
2.20
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Ryan JensenTafon Nchukwi
15501600165020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

9 (43%)
KO/TKO
4 (57%)
12 (57%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Tafon Nchukwi57%
Ryan Jensen 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Tafon Nchukwi a 57% favorite over Ryan Jensen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1586 vs 1588), separated by just 2 points.

Ryan Jensen finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Tafon Nchukwi 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.