Ryan Parker vs Wataru Sakata
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-5-0Record11-14-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight178 lbs
Team XCWT MMATeamFreelance
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1506
If they lose-16→ 1474
If they win+12→ 1508
If they lose-12→ 1484
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1522 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1559 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ryan ParkerWataru Sakata
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Parker61%
Wataru Sakata 39%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Parker a 61% favorite over Wataru Sakata in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Wataru Sakata's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1490 vs 1496), separated by just 6 points.
Ryan Parker enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Wataru Sakata enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ryan Parker finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Wataru Sakata 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.