Ryan Spann vs Will Fleury
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-11-0Record17-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'3"
79"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight238 lbs
Fortis MMATeamSBG Ireland
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1722
If they lose-12→ 1698
If they win+16→ 1726
If they lose-16→ 1694
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ryan SpannWill Fleury
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Will Fleury53%
Ryan Spann 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Will Fleury a 53% favorite over Ryan Spann in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ryan Spann's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1710 vs 1710), separated by just 0 points.
Ryan Spann enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Will Fleury enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Ryan Spann finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Will Fleury 53%.
Ryan Spann carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.