Combat Edge Intelligence

Sean Alvarez vs Łukasz Brzeski

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

4-3-0Record9-7-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
TBDReach78"
235 lbsWeight236 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamNKSW Holy Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Sean AlvarezNow 1528
If they win+24→ 1552
If they lose-24→ 1504
Łukasz BrzeskiNow 1535
If they win+16→ 1551
If they lose-16→ 1519

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1550 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1644 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.89
Sig. strikes / min
5.02
38%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.25
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.68
48%
Strike defense
55%
0
Takedown avg.
0.43
0%
Takedown accuracy
33%
0%
Takedown defense
37%
0
Submission avg.
0.43

Trajectory

Sean AlvarezŁukasz Brzeski
15501600200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (33%)
KO/TKO
5 (56%)
1 (33%)
Submission
2 (22%)
1 (33%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Łukasz Brzeski53%
Sean Alvarez 47%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Łukasz Brzeski a 53% favorite over Sean Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1528 vs 1535), separated by just 7 points.

Łukasz Brzeski enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Sean Alvarez finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Łukasz Brzeski 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.