Combat Edge Intelligence

Serghei Spivac vs Will Fleury

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-6-0Record17-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
78"Reach77"
256 lbsWeight238 lbs
Polar Bear TeamTeamSBG Ireland

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Serghei SpivacNow 1723
If they win+15→ 1738
If they lose-17→ 1706
Will FleuryNow 1710
If they win+17→ 1727
If they lose-15→ 1695

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.57
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
48%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
52%
Strike defense
TBD
3.82
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
64%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.48
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Serghei SpivacWill Fleury
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (39%)
KO/TKO
5 (29%)
8 (44%)
Submission
4 (24%)
3 (17%)
Decision
8 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Serghei Spivac and Will Fleury within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1723 vs 1710), separated by just 13 points.

Will Fleury enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Serghei Spivac finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Will Fleury 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.