Combat Edge Intelligence

Shane Nelson vs Vicente Vargas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-7-0Record24-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
TBDReach-
145 lbsWeight147 lbs
BJ Penn's MMATeamTeam Ludus

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Shane NelsonNow 1641
If they win+16→ 1657
If they lose-16→ 1625
Vicente VargasNow 1642
If they win+12→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1630

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1510 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.38
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
31%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.84
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
61%
Strike defense
TBD
1.31
Takedown avg.
TBD
18%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
55%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.64
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Shane NelsonVicente Vargas
1650201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (31%)
KO/TKO
2 (9%)
3 (19%)
Submission
5 (22%)
8 (50%)
Decision
16 (70%)

Combat Edge model read

Vicente Vargas66%
Shane Nelson 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Vicente Vargas a 66% favorite over Shane Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1641 vs 1642), separated by just 1 points.

Shane Nelson finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Vicente Vargas 30%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.