Combat Edge Intelligence

Tafon Nchukwi vs Wilson Gouveia

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-4-0Record14-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
77"ReachTBD
190 lbsWeight219 lbs
Team Lloyd IrvinTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Tafon NchukwiNow 1588
If they win+16→ 1604
If they lose-16→ 1572
Wilson GouveiaNow 1586
If they win+16→ 1602
If they lose-16→ 1570

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1619 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.57
Sig. strikes / min
3.02
53%
Strike accuracy
40%
4.11
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.06
54%
Strike defense
57%
0.76
Takedown avg.
0.90
57%
Takedown accuracy
67%
65%
Takedown defense
58%
0
Submission avg.
2.25

Trajectory

Tafon NchukwiWilson Gouveia
155016001650201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (57%)
KO/TKO
7 (50%)
0 (0%)
Submission
6 (43%)
3 (43%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Tafon Nchukwi58%
Wilson Gouveia 42%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Tafon Nchukwi a 58% favorite over Wilson Gouveia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1588 vs 1586), separated by just 2 points.

Wilson Gouveia enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Tafon Nchukwi finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Wilson Gouveia 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.