Combat Edge Intelligence

Tarec Saffiedine vs Tony Ferguson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-7-0Record25-11-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'0"
70,0"Reach76"
169 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tristar GymTeamKnuckleheadz MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Tarec SaffiedineNow 1659
If they win+16→ 1675
If they lose-16→ 1643
Tony FergusonNow 1659
If they win+12→ 1671
If they lose-12→ 1647

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1699 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.05
Sig. strikes / min
4.91
48%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.37
62%
Strike defense
55%
0.52
Takedown avg.
0.39
36%
Takedown accuracy
35%
85%
Takedown defense
66%
0.13
Submission avg.
0.88

Trajectory

Tarec SaffiedineTony Ferguson
1650170017502015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

1 (6%)
KO/TKO
12 (48%)
5 (31%)
Submission
8 (32%)
10 (63%)
Decision
5 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Tarec Saffiedine53%
Tony Ferguson 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Tarec Saffiedine a 53% favorite over Tony Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1659 vs 1659), separated by just 0 points.

Tarec Saffiedine enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.

Tarec Saffiedine finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.

Tony Ferguson carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.