Combat Edge Intelligence

Thomas Petersen vs Yoshihiro Nakao

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-4-0Record9-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height5'11"
74"ReachTBD
257 lbsWeight215 lbs
Spartan MMATeamTeam Tackler

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Thomas PetersenNow 1639
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623
Yoshihiro NakaoNow 1642
If they win+16→ 1658
If they lose-16→ 1626

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.10
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
60%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.61
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
55%
Strike defense
TBD
3.01
Takedown avg.
TBD
43%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
88%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.38
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Thomas PetersenYoshihiro Nakao
1650200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (64%)
KO/TKO
4 (44%)
1 (9%)
Submission
2 (22%)
3 (27%)
Decision
3 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Thomas Petersen63%
Yoshihiro Nakao 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Thomas Petersen a 63% favorite over Yoshihiro Nakao in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Yoshihiro Nakao's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1639 vs 1642), separated by just 3 points.

Thomas Petersen finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Yoshihiro Nakao 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.