Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Jeffery vs Kelvin Gastelum

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

16-6-0Record20-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height5'9"
74"Reach71"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Niagara Top TeamTeamFight Ready

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aaron JefferyNow 1694
If they win+16→ 1710
If they lose-16→ 1678
Kelvin GastelumNow 1693
If they win+12→ 1705
If they lose-12→ 1681

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.67
TBD
Strike accuracy
42%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.53
TBD
Strike defense
57%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.01
TBD
Takedown accuracy
34%
TBD
Takedown defense
60%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Aaron JefferyKelvin Gastelum
17002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (56%)
KO/TKO
6 (30%)
1 (6%)
Submission
5 (25%)
6 (38%)
Decision
9 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Kelvin Gastelum59%
Aaron Jeffery 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kelvin Gastelum a 59% favorite over Aaron Jeffery in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aaron Jeffery's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1694 vs 1693), separated by just 1 points.

Aaron Jeffery finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Kelvin Gastelum 55%.

Aaron Jeffery carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.