Adam Masaev vs Joel Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-0-0Record23-4-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height6'2"
-Reach77"
162 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tactical Fight TeamTeamBandog Fight Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1731
If they lose-16→ 1699
If they win+16→ 1731
If they lose-16→ 1699
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1507 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1697 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Adam MasaevJoel Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Adam Masaev51%
Joel Alvarez 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Adam Masaev a 51% favorite over Joel Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1715 vs 1715), separated by just 0 points.
Adam Masaev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Adam Masaev finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Joel Alvarez 96%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.