Adlan Amagov vs Joel Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-2-1Record23-4-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height6'2"
TBDReach77"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamBandog Fight Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1733
If they lose-16→ 1701
If they win+16→ 1731
If they lose-16→ 1699
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1697 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Adlan AmagovJoel Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez66%
Adlan Amagov 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 66% favorite over Adlan Amagov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Adlan Amagov's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1717 vs 1715), separated by just 2 points.
Adlan Amagov enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Adlan Amagov finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Joel Alvarez 96%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.