Combat Edge Intelligence

Aleksandar Rakić vs Rafael Tobias

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

14-6-0Record14-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'5"Height6'2"
78"Reach74"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Gym 23TeamChute Boxe Monstro

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aleksandar RakićNow 1676
If they win+16→ 1692
If they lose-16→ 1660
Rafael TobiasNow 1675
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1739 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.13
Sig. strikes / min
3.45
50%
Strike accuracy
31%
2.86
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.98
51%
Strike defense
40%
0.64
Takedown avg.
3.98
22%
Takedown accuracy
100%
86%
Takedown defense
0%
0.13
Submission avg.
3.98

Trajectory

Aleksandar RakićRafael Tobias
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (64%)
KO/TKO
5 (36%)
1 (7%)
Submission
6 (43%)
4 (29%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael Tobias63%
Aleksandar Rakić 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Tobias a 63% favorite over Aleksandar Rakić in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aleksandar Rakić's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1676 vs 1675), separated by just 1 points.

Aleksandar Rakić enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Aleksandar Rakić finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Tobias 79%.

Aleksandar Rakić carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.