Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Hernandez vs Jesus Pinedo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-9-0Record25-8-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72"Reach74"
148 lbsWeight145 lbs
Factory XTeamPitbull Martial Arts Center

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexander HernandezNow 1716
If they win+12→ 1728
If they lose-12→ 1704
Jesus PinedoNow 1720
If they win+12→ 1732
If they lose-12→ 1708

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1663 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.31
Sig. strikes / min
3.23
41%
Strike accuracy
38%
4.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.37
59%
Strike defense
53%
1.14
Takedown avg.
2.50
36%
Takedown accuracy
100%
73%
Takedown defense
100%
0.09
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alexander HernandezJesus Pinedo
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (44%)
KO/TKO
16 (64%)
2 (11%)
Submission
4 (16%)
8 (44%)
Decision
5 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alexander Hernandez and Jesus Pinedo within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1716 vs 1720), separated by just 4 points.

Jesus Pinedo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Jesus Pinedo 80%.

Jesus Pinedo carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.