Alexandre Franca Nogueira vs Vicente Vargas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-6-3Record24-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight147 lbs
Pequeno TeamTeamTeam Ludus
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1653
If they lose-12→ 1629
If they win+12→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1630
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1510 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexandre Franca NogueiraVicente Vargas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Vicente Vargas66%
Alexandre Franca Nogueira 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Vicente Vargas a 66% favorite over Alexandre Franca Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1641 vs 1642), separated by just 1 points.
Alexandre Franca Nogueira enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Alexandre Franca Nogueira finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Vicente Vargas 30%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.