Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexis Dufresne vs Chelsea Chandler

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-3-0Record7-4-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'8"
TBDReach68"
150 lbsWeight137 lbs
Team QuestTeamCesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Chelsea Chandler is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Alexis Dufresne carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexis DufresneNow 1567
If they win+25→ 1592
If they lose-23→ 1544
Chelsea ChandlerNow 1584
If they win+15→ 1599
If they lose-17→ 1567

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1518 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.33
Sig. strikes / min
3.55
28%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.44
61%
Strike defense
40%
1.50
Takedown avg.
0.87
50%
Takedown accuracy
60%
50%
Takedown defense
29%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alexis DufresneChelsea Chandler
15501600201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
2 (29%)
3 (50%)
Submission
2 (29%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Chelsea Chandler63%
Alexis Dufresne 37%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Chelsea Chandler a 63% favorite over Alexis Dufresne in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Chelsea Chandler holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1584 to 1567, a 17-point edge.

Alexis Dufresne finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Chelsea Chandler 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.