Combat Edge Intelligence

Amru Magomedov vs Chris Duncan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Chris Duncan

Chris Duncan

“The Problem”

15-3-0LightweightUFC

1722 Good

Tale of the tape

10-0-0 Record 15-3-0
Lightweight Division Lightweight
5'11" Height 6'0"
71" Reach 71"
155 lbs Weight 155 lbs
Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov School Team American Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Amru MagomedovNow 1723
If they win+16→ 1739
If they lose-16→ 1707
Chris DuncanNow 1722
If they win+16→ 1738
If they lose-16→ 1706

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
5.02
TBD
Strike accuracy
46%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / min Lower is better
4.82
TBD
Strike defense
51%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.27
TBD
Takedown accuracy
43%
TBD
Takedown defense
50%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.65

Trajectory

Amru Magomedov Chris Duncan
1650 1700 1750 2024 2025 2026

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
5 (50%)
Submission
4 (27%)
2 (20%)
Decision
4 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Amru Magomedov and Chris Duncan within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1723 vs 1722), separated by just 1 points.

Amru Magomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Amru Magomedov finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Chris Duncan 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.