Combat Edge Intelligence

Andreas Gustafsson vs Tarec Saffiedine

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-3-0Record16-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'9"
73"Reach70,0"
185 lbsWeight169 lbs
Vasteras Fight ClubTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Andreas GustafssonNow 1661
If they win+16→ 1677
If they lose-16→ 1645
Tarec SaffiedineNow 1659
If they win+16→ 1675
If they lose-16→ 1643

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1699 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.82
Sig. strikes / min
4.05
72%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.63
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.06
46%
Strike defense
62%
6.19
Takedown avg.
0.52
59%
Takedown accuracy
36%
100%
Takedown defense
85%
0
Submission avg.
0.13

Trajectory

Andreas GustafssonTarec Saffiedine
16001650170020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

8 (67%)
KO/TKO
1 (6%)
2 (17%)
Submission
5 (31%)
2 (17%)
Decision
10 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

Andreas Gustafsson67%
Tarec Saffiedine 33%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Andreas Gustafsson a 67% favorite over Tarec Saffiedine in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1661 vs 1659), separated by just 2 points.

Tarec Saffiedine enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Andreas Gustafsson finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Tarec Saffiedine 38%.

Andreas Gustafsson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.