Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrei Semenov vs Kelvin Gastelum

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

34-9-2Record20-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'9"
TBDReach71"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
TBDTeamFight Ready

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Andrei SemenovNow 1698
If they win+12→ 1710
If they lose-12→ 1686
Kelvin GastelumNow 1693
If they win+12→ 1705
If they lose-12→ 1681

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.51
Sig. strikes / min
3.67
13%
Strike accuracy
42%
4.32
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.53
61%
Strike defense
57%
0.77
Takedown avg.
1.01
50%
Takedown accuracy
34%
56%
Takedown defense
60%
0.77
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Andrei SemenovKelvin Gastelum
1700201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (32%)
KO/TKO
6 (30%)
15 (44%)
Submission
5 (25%)
8 (24%)
Decision
9 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Kelvin Gastelum75%
Andrei Semenov 25%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Kelvin Gastelum a 75% favorite over Andrei Semenov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Andrei Semenov's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1698 vs 1693), separated by just 5 points.

Andrei Semenov enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Andrei Semenov finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Kelvin Gastelum 55%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.