Combat Edge Intelligence

Anthony Hernandez vs Dan Henderson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-3-0Record32-15-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'1"
75"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
MMA Gold Fight TeamTeamTeam Quest

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Anthony HernandezNow 1738
If they win+16→ 1754
If they lose-16→ 1722
Dan HendersonNow 1740
If they win+12→ 1752
If they lose-12→ 1728

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1719 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1739 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.57
Sig. strikes / min
2.44
61%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.10
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.70
51%
Strike defense
52%
5.88
Takedown avg.
1.52
0%
Takedown accuracy
53%
68%
Takedown defense
58%
1.63
Submission avg.
0.34

Trajectory

Anthony HernandezDan Henderson
170017502014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (20%)
KO/TKO
17 (53%)
9 (60%)
Submission
1 (3%)
3 (20%)
Decision
14 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Anthony Hernandez73%
Dan Henderson 27%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Anthony Hernandez a 73% favorite over Dan Henderson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dan Henderson's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1738 vs 1740), separated by just 2 points.

Anthony Hernandez finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Dan Henderson 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.