Anthony Smith vs Rafael Tobias
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-22-0Record14-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
76"Reach74"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Factory XTeamChute Boxe Monstro
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony SmithRafael Tobias
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Tobias71%
Anthony Smith 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Tobias a 71% favorite over Anthony Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1674 vs 1675), separated by just 1 points.
Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Anthony Smith finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Tobias 79%.
Anthony Smith carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.