Austen Lane vs Wagner Prado
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-8-0Record18-8-1
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'6"Height6'1"
80"ReachTBD
255 lbsWeight205 lbs
Bulldog BoxingTeamBrazilian TKO
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1590
If they lose-16→ 1558
If they win+16→ 1591
If they lose-16→ 1559
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Austen LaneWagner Prado
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Austen Lane60%
Wagner Prado 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Austen Lane a 60% favorite over Wagner Prado in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Wagner Prado's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1574 vs 1575), separated by just 1 points.
Austen Lane enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Austen Lane finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Wagner Prado 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.