Combat Edge Intelligence

Axel Sola vs Joe Ellenberger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-1-1Record15-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
74"Reach72,0"
154 lbsWeight155 lbs
Boxing SquadTeamPremier Combat Center

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Axel SolaNow 1687
If they win+16→ 1703
If they lose-16→ 1671
Joe EllenbergerNow 1685
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1669

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1539 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.07
Sig. strikes / min
1.62
46%
Strike accuracy
47%
5.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.45
61%
Strike defense
48%
2.22
Takedown avg.
3.17
36%
Takedown accuracy
40%
0%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
1.06

Trajectory

Axel SolaJoe Ellenberger
1650170020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (55%)
KO/TKO
8 (53%)
1 (9%)
Submission
4 (27%)
4 (36%)
Decision
3 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Axel Sola70%
Joe Ellenberger 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Axel Sola a 70% favorite over Joe Ellenberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1687 vs 1685), separated by just 2 points.

Axel Sola finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Joe Ellenberger 80%.

Axel Sola carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.