Combat Edge Intelligence

Brian Kelleher vs Ronnie Lawrence

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-16-0Record8-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
66"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Maxum BJJTeamMMA Science Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brian KelleherNow 1635
If they win+12→ 1647
If they lose-12→ 1623
Ronnie LawrenceNow 1636
If they win+24→ 1660
If they lose-24→ 1612

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1659 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.31
Sig. strikes / min
2.78
41%
Strike accuracy
56%
4.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.75
55%
Strike defense
52%
1.68
Takedown avg.
6.75
42%
Takedown accuracy
77%
60%
Takedown defense
45%
0.67
Submission avg.
0.25

Trajectory

Brian KelleherRonnie Lawrence
1600165017002021202220232024

Win method breakdown

8 (33%)
KO/TKO
4 (50%)
10 (42%)
Submission
0 (0%)
6 (25%)
Decision
4 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Ronnie Lawrence72%
Brian Kelleher 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ronnie Lawrence a 72% favorite over Brian Kelleher in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1635 vs 1636), separated by just 1 points.

Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Brian Kelleher finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Ronnie Lawrence 50%.

Ronnie Lawrence carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.