Carlos Leal vs Joel Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
23-7-0Record23-4-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height6'2"
74"Reach77"
169 lbsWeight155 lbs
Thai BrasilTeamBandog Fight Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1726
If they lose-12→ 1702
If they win+16→ 1731
If they lose-16→ 1699
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1631 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1697 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos LealJoel Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Carlos Leal and Joel Alvarez within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1714 vs 1715), separated by just 1 points.
Carlos Leal finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Joel Alvarez 96%.
Joel Alvarez carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.