Combat Edge Intelligence

Cezar Ferreira vs Robert Valentin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-11-0Record11-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'2"
TBDReach 77"
216 lbsWeight185 lbs
MMA MastersTeamFight Move Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Cezar FerreiraNow 1591
If they win+12→ 1603
If they lose-12→ 1579
Robert ValentinNow 1592
If they win+16→ 1608
If they lose-16→ 1576

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1655 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.90
Sig. strikes / min
1.30
43%
Strike accuracy
56%
2.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.72
54%
Strike defense
33%
2.69
Takedown avg.
0.59
54%
Takedown accuracy
50%
85%
Takedown defense
55%
0.48
Submission avg.
1.78

Trajectory

Cezar FerreiraRobert Valentin
15501600165020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (29%)
KO/TKO
3 (27%)
4 (29%)
Submission
7 (64%)
6 (43%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

Robert Valentin66%
Cezar Ferreira 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Robert Valentin a 66% favorite over Cezar Ferreira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1591 vs 1592), separated by just 1 points.

Cezar Ferreira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Cezar Ferreira finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Robert Valentin 91%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.