Combat Edge Intelligence

Chael Sonnen vs Rafael Tobias

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

31-17-1Record14-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
73"Reach74"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team QuestTeamChute Boxe Monstro

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chael SonnenNow 1672
If they win+12→ 1684
If they lose-12→ 1660
Rafael TobiasNow 1675
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1763 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.10
Sig. strikes / min
3.45
44%
Strike accuracy
31%
1.12
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.98
63%
Strike defense
40%
3.78
Takedown avg.
3.98
59%
Takedown accuracy
100%
67%
Takedown defense
0%
0.41
Submission avg.
3.98

Trajectory

Chael SonnenRafael Tobias
16501700201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (26%)
KO/TKO
5 (36%)
4 (13%)
Submission
6 (43%)
19 (61%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael Tobias72%
Chael Sonnen 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Tobias a 72% favorite over Chael Sonnen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1672 vs 1675), separated by just 3 points.

Chael Sonnen enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Chael Sonnen finishes 39% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Tobias 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.