Combat Edge Intelligence

Chepe Mariscal vs Julio Arce

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-7-0Record21-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'7"
69″Reach70"
145 lbsWeight147 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamTeam Tiger Schulmann

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chepe MariscalNow 1700
If they win+12→ 1712
If they lose-12→ 1688
Julio ArceNow 1703
If they win+12→ 1715
If they lose-12→ 1691

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1620 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.95
Sig. strikes / min
4.36
56%
Strike accuracy
36%
3.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.05
52%
Strike defense
68%
2.85
Takedown avg.
0.46
39%
Takedown accuracy
29%
73%
Takedown defense
96%
0.22
Submission avg.
0.35

Trajectory

Chepe MariscalJulio Arce
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (39%)
KO/TKO
7 (33%)
3 (17%)
Submission
5 (24%)
8 (44%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Julio Arce52%
Chepe Mariscal 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Julio Arce a 52% favorite over Chepe Mariscal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1700 vs 1703), separated by just 3 points.

Chepe Mariscal finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Julio Arce 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.