Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Padilla vs John Castañeda

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-6-1Record21-8-1
LightweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'7"
74"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight135 lbs
California Mixed Martial ArtsTeamThe Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chris PadillaNow 1703
If they win+16→ 1719
If they lose-16→ 1687
John CastañedaNow 1696
If they win+12→ 1708
If they lose-12→ 1684

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.78
Sig. strikes / min
4.42
54%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.87
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.94
56%
Strike defense
54%
1.18
Takedown avg.
1.68
30%
Takedown accuracy
37%
75%
Takedown defense
74%
0.39
Submission avg.
0.13

Trajectory

Chris PadillaJohn Castañeda
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (53%)
KO/TKO
8 (38%)
5 (29%)
Submission
6 (29%)
3 (18%)
Decision
7 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Chris Padilla60%
John Castañeda 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Chris Padilla a 60% favorite over John Castañeda in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1703 vs 1696), separated by just 7 points.

Chris Padilla enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Chris Padilla finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, John Castañeda 67%.

Chris Padilla carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.