Combat Edge Intelligence

Christian Morecraft vs Junior dos Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record23-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'6"Height6'4"
TBDReach77"
261 lbsWeight250 lbs
Team BombsquadTeamChampion Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Christian MorecraftNow 1638
If they win+16→ 1654
If they lose-16→ 1622
Junior dos SantosNow 1642
If they win+12→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1630

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.82
Sig. strikes / min
4.49
34%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.46
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.33
46%
Strike defense
56%
3.26
Takedown avg.
0.30
67%
Takedown accuracy
50%
50%
Takedown defense
82%
2.17
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Christian MorecraftJunior dos Santos
1650201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (38%)
KO/TKO
16 (70%)
5 (63%)
Submission
1 (4%)
0 (0%)
Decision
6 (26%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Christian Morecraft and Junior dos Santos within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1638 vs 1642), separated by just 4 points.

Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Christian Morecraft finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Junior dos Santos 74%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.