Combat Edge Intelligence

Christian Morecraft vs Thomas Petersen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'6"Height6'1"
TBDReach74"
261 lbsWeight257 lbs
Team BombsquadTeamSpartan MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Christian MorecraftNow 1638
If they win+16→ 1654
If they lose-16→ 1622
Thomas PetersenNow 1639
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.82
Sig. strikes / min
3.10
34%
Strike accuracy
60%
2.46
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.61
46%
Strike defense
55%
3.26
Takedown avg.
3.01
67%
Takedown accuracy
43%
50%
Takedown defense
88%
2.17
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Christian MorecraftThomas Petersen
1650201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (38%)
KO/TKO
7 (64%)
5 (63%)
Submission
1 (9%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Thomas Petersen70%
Christian Morecraft 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Thomas Petersen a 70% favorite over Christian Morecraft in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1638 vs 1639), separated by just 1 points.

Christian Morecraft finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Thomas Petersen 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.