Connor Matthews vs Toby Misech
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-4-0Record12-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'8"
71"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
Lakeville MMA & FitnessTeamJesus Is Lord
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1578
If they lose-16→ 1546
If they win+16→ 1571
If they lose-16→ 1539
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Connor MatthewsToby Misech
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Connor Matthews55%
Toby Misech 45%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Connor Matthews a 55% favorite over Toby Misech in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1562 vs 1555), separated by just 7 points.
Connor Matthews enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Toby Misech enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Connor Matthews finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Toby Misech 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.