Combat Edge Intelligence

Cristiano Oliveira vs Michael Lerma

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Michael Lerma

Michael Lerma

“Body Snatcher”

0-1-0LightweightK-1

1473Average

Tale of the tape

2-3-0Record0-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height6'0"
70"ReachTBD
150 lbsWeight154 lbs
Portugal Top TeamTeamIronhorse Boxing Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Cristiano OliveiraNow 1474
If they win+24→ 1498
If they lose-24→ 1450
Michael LermaNow 1473
If they win+24→ 1497
If they lose-24→ 1449

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1493 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.46
TBD
Strike accuracy
54%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.23
TBD
Strike defense
53%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.27
TBD
Takedown accuracy
52%
TBD
Takedown defense
77%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.81

Trajectory

Cristiano OliveiraMichael Lerma
1500200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (50%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (50%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Cristiano Oliveira75%
Michael Lerma 25%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Cristiano Oliveira a 75% favorite over Michael Lerma in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1474 vs 1473), separated by just 1 points.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.