Cynthia Calvillo vs Maria Oliveira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-6-1Record13-7-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'5"
64"Reach69"
119 lbsWeight115 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamParana Vale Tudo
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1605
If they lose-16→ 1573
If they win+16→ 1604
If they lose-16→ 1572
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1637 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1532 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cynthia CalvilloMaria Oliveira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Maria Oliveira66%
Cynthia Calvillo 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Maria Oliveira a 66% favorite over Cynthia Calvillo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Cynthia Calvillo's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1589 vs 1588), separated by just 1 points.
Maria Oliveira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Cynthia Calvillo finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Maria Oliveira 62%.
Cynthia Calvillo and Maria Oliveira share 1 common opponent: Marina Rodriguez.
Maria Oliveira carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.