Combat Edge Intelligence

Dan Henderson vs Krzysztof Jotko

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

32-15-0Record29-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'1"
74"Reach77"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team QuestTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dan HendersonNow 1740
If they win+12→ 1752
If they lose-12→ 1728
Krzysztof JotkoNow 1743
If they win+12→ 1755
If they lose-12→ 1731

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1739 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1610 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.44
Sig. strikes / min
2.98
47%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.70
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.23
52%
Strike defense
57%
1.52
Takedown avg.
1.33
53%
Takedown accuracy
40%
58%
Takedown defense
82%
0.34
Submission avg.
0.07

Trajectory

Dan HendersonKrzysztof Jotko
17502014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

17 (53%)
KO/TKO
8 (28%)
1 (3%)
Submission
2 (7%)
14 (44%)
Decision
19 (66%)

Combat Edge model read

Krzysztof Jotko72%
Dan Henderson 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Krzysztof Jotko a 72% favorite over Dan Henderson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1740 vs 1743), separated by just 3 points.

Krzysztof Jotko enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Dan Henderson finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Krzysztof Jotko 34%.

Krzysztof Jotko carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.