Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Frunza vs Justin Guthrie

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record18-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'11"
73"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Black House SantiagoTeamColorado Fight Factory

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Daniel FrunzaNow 1574
If they win+16→ 1590
If they lose-16→ 1558
Justin GuthrieNow 1575
If they win+16→ 1591
If they lose-16→ 1559

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1522 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1566 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.30
Sig. strikes / min
6.78
40%
Strike accuracy
59%
6.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
7.46
57%
Strike defense
52%
0
Takedown avg.
0.11
TBD
Takedown accuracy
25%
60%
Takedown defense
75%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Daniel FrunzaJustin Guthrie
1550160020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

8 (89%)
KO/TKO
5 (28%)
0 (0%)
Submission
7 (39%)
1 (11%)
Decision
6 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Daniel Frunza62%
Justin Guthrie 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Frunza a 62% favorite over Justin Guthrie in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Guthrie's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1574 vs 1575), separated by just 1 points.

Daniel Frunza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Daniel Frunza finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Justin Guthrie 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.