Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Frunza vs Thiago Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record23-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'10"
73"Reach70,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Black House SantiagoTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Daniel FrunzaNow 1574
If they win+16→ 1590
If they lose-16→ 1558
Thiago AlvesNow 1572
If they win+12→ 1584
If they lose-12→ 1560

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1522 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.30
Sig. strikes / min
3.73
40%
Strike accuracy
42%
6.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.42
57%
Strike defense
63%
0
Takedown avg.
0.71
TBD
Takedown accuracy
61%
60%
Takedown defense
63%
0
Submission avg.
0.30

Trajectory

Daniel FrunzaThiago Alves
1550160020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

8 (89%)
KO/TKO
13 (57%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (4%)
1 (11%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Daniel Frunza66%
Thiago Alves 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Frunza a 66% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1574 vs 1572), separated by just 2 points.

Daniel Frunza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Daniel Frunza finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.

Daniel Frunza carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.