David Heath vs Rafael Tobias
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-7-0Record14-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'2"
TBDReach74"
203 lbsWeight205 lbs
Absolute Combat AllianceTeamChute Boxe Monstro
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1692
If they lose-16→ 1660
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1515 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
David HeathRafael Tobias
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Tobias70%
David Heath 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Tobias a 70% favorite over David Heath in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans David Heath's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1676 vs 1675), separated by just 1 points.
David Heath enters on a 2-fight win streak.
David Heath finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Tobias 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.