Combat Edge Intelligence

Edson Barboza vs Ismael Bonfim

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-14-0Record20-6-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'9"
75"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamCerrado MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Edson BarbozaNow 1682
If they win+12→ 1694
If they lose-12→ 1670
Ismael BonfimNow 1681
If they win+16→ 1697
If they lose-16→ 1665

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1614 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.14
Sig. strikes / min
5.51
45%
Strike accuracy
54%
4.68
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.71
56%
Strike defense
65%
0.43
Takedown avg.
1.06
32%
Takedown accuracy
33%
73%
Takedown defense
77%
0.08
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Edson BarbozaIsmael Bonfim
1700175020242025

Win method breakdown

14 (58%)
KO/TKO
9 (45%)
1 (4%)
Submission
4 (20%)
9 (38%)
Decision
7 (35%)

Combat Edge model read

Ismael Bonfim60%
Edson Barboza 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ismael Bonfim a 60% favorite over Edson Barboza in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Edson Barboza's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1682 vs 1681), separated by just 1 points.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Ismael Bonfim enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Ismael Bonfim 65%.

Edson Barboza carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.