Combat Edge Intelligence

Elias Urbina vs Justin Sumter

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-1-0Record9-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
TBDHeight6'2"
TBDReach80,0"
184 lbsWeight185 lbs
TBDTeamFighting Arts Academy CT

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Elias UrbinaNow 1561
If they win+24→ 1585
If they lose-24→ 1537
Justin SumterNow 1555
If they win+16→ 1571
If they lose-16→ 1539

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1511 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1547 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.85
Sig. strikes / min
2.68
38%
Strike accuracy
48%
6.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
7.64
51%
Strike defense
34%
0
Takedown avg.
2.87
0%
Takedown accuracy
100%
0%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Elias UrbinaJustin Sumter
15502021202220232024

Win method breakdown

2 (40%)
KO/TKO
2 (22%)
2 (40%)
Submission
5 (56%)
1 (20%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Elias Urbina56%
Justin Sumter 44%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Elias Urbina a 56% favorite over Justin Sumter in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1561 vs 1555), separated by just 6 points.

Elias Urbina finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Justin Sumter 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.