Combat Edge Intelligence

Elias Urbina vs Luke Barnatt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-1-0Record15-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
TBDHeight6'6"
TBDReachTBD
184 lbsWeight185 lbs
TBDTeamTsunami Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Elias UrbinaNow 1561
If they win+24→ 1585
If they lose-24→ 1537
Luke BarnattNow 1563
If they win+12→ 1575
If they lose-12→ 1551

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1511 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1557 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.85
Sig. strikes / min
4.43
38%
Strike accuracy
36%
6.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.87
51%
Strike defense
59%
0
Takedown avg.
0.63
0%
Takedown accuracy
43%
0%
Takedown defense
64%
0
Submission avg.
0.42

Trajectory

Elias UrbinaLuke Barnatt
155016001650201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

2 (40%)
KO/TKO
9 (60%)
2 (40%)
Submission
4 (27%)
1 (20%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Elias Urbina60%
Luke Barnatt 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Elias Urbina a 60% favorite over Luke Barnatt in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Luke Barnatt's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1561 vs 1563), separated by just 2 points.

Luke Barnatt enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Elias Urbina finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Luke Barnatt 87%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.