Eric Nolan vs Jutaro Nakao
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-5-0Record26-21-4
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Lionheart Mixed Martial ArtsTeamJutaro Nakao MMA School
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1553
If they lose-16→ 1521
If they win+12→ 1545
If they lose-12→ 1521
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1527 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Eric NolanJutaro Nakao
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Eric Nolan63%
Jutaro Nakao 37%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Eric Nolan a 63% favorite over Jutaro Nakao in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1537 vs 1533), separated by just 4 points.
Eric Nolan enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jutaro Nakao enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Eric Nolan finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Jutaro Nakao 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.