Evan Elder vs Fabrizio Escarrega
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record9-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'1"
72"Reach-
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Nick Diaz AcademyTeamVictory Fight Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1666
If they lose-16→ 1634
If they win+16→ 1665
If they lose-16→ 1633
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1488 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Evan ElderFabrizio Escarrega
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fabrizio Escarrega60%
Evan Elder 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Fabrizio Escarrega a 60% favorite over Evan Elder in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Evan Elder's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1650 vs 1649), separated by just 1 points.
Evan Elder enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Fabrizio Escarrega enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Evan Elder finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Fabrizio Escarrega 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.