Combat Edge Intelligence

Fabrizio Escarrega vs Joaquim Silva

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-1-0Record14-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'8"
-Reach69"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Victory Fight ClubTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Fabrizio EscarregaNow 1649
If they win+16→ 1665
If they lose-16→ 1633
Joaquim SilvaNow 1650
If they win+16→ 1666
If they lose-16→ 1634

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1488 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1676 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.66
TBD
Strike accuracy
43%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.53
TBD
Strike defense
53%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.39
TBD
Takedown accuracy
50%
TBD
Takedown defense
69%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.78

Trajectory

Fabrizio EscarregaJoaquim Silva
160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (78%)
KO/TKO
7 (50%)
1 (11%)
Submission
3 (21%)
1 (11%)
Decision
4 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Fabrizio Escarrega70%
Joaquim Silva 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Fabrizio Escarrega a 70% favorite over Joaquim Silva in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Joaquim Silva's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1649 vs 1650), separated by just 1 points.

Fabrizio Escarrega enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Fabrizio Escarrega finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Joaquim Silva 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.