Fabrizio Escarrega vs Noah Gugnon
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-1-0Record9-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'10"
-Reach68"
156 lbsWeight156 lbs
Victory Fight ClubTeamBulgarian Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1665
If they lose-16→ 1633
If they win+16→ 1664
If they lose-16→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1488 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1507 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Fabrizio EscarregaNoah Gugnon
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Fabrizio Escarrega and Noah Gugnon within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1649 vs 1648), separated by just 1 points.
Fabrizio Escarrega enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Noah Gugnon enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Fabrizio Escarrega finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Noah Gugnon 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.