Combat Edge Intelligence

Fernando Padilla vs Javier Reyes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-6-0Record23-6-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'1"Height5'10"
76"Reach73"
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
Team OyamaTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Fernando PadillaNow 1673
If they win+16→ 1689
If they lose-16→ 1657
Javier ReyesNow 1675
If they win+12→ 1687
If they lose-12→ 1663

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1584 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1558 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.48
Sig. strikes / min
8.91
42%
Strike accuracy
56%
5.25
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.53
54%
Strike defense
47%
0
Takedown avg.
2
0%
Takedown accuracy
50%
100%
Takedown defense
50%
0.77
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Fernando PadillaJavier Reyes
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (31%)
KO/TKO
11 (48%)
9 (56%)
Submission
8 (35%)
2 (13%)
Decision
4 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Javier Reyes71%
Fernando Padilla 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Javier Reyes a 71% favorite over Fernando Padilla in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1673 vs 1675), separated by just 2 points.

Fernando Padilla finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Javier Reyes 83%.

Fernando Padilla carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.