Fernando Padilla vs Keiichiro Nakamura
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record8-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'1"Height5'10"
76"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
Team OyamaTeamEXFIGHT
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1689
If they lose-16→ 1657
If they win+24→ 1696
If they lose-24→ 1648
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1584 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Fernando PadillaKeiichiro Nakamura
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Keiichiro Nakamura53%
Fernando Padilla 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Keiichiro Nakamura a 53% favorite over Fernando Padilla in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Fernando Padilla's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1673 vs 1672), separated by just 1 points.
Keiichiro Nakamura enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Fernando Padilla finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Keiichiro Nakamura 88%.
Fernando Padilla carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.