Frank Lester vs Will Davis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-8-0Record3-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight161 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamDerby City MMA
What's at stake
Will Davis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Frank Lester carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1520
If they lose-15→ 1488
If they win+23→ 1546
If they lose-25→ 1498
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1495 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Frank LesterWill Davis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Will Davis60%
Frank Lester 40%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Will Davis a 60% favorite over Frank Lester in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Will Davis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1523 to 1503, a 20-point edge.
Frank Lester finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Will Davis 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.