Combat Edge Intelligence

Frankie Saenz vs Thimna Mhlauli

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-7-0Record5-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
66,0"Reach-
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamQuanWessels BJJ & MMA Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Frankie SaenzNow 1589
If they win+16→ 1605
If they lose-16→ 1573
Thimna MhlauliNow 1588
If they win+24→ 1612
If they lose-24→ 1564

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.94
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
47%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
52%
Strike defense
TBD
1.74
Takedown avg.
TBD
32%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
62%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.12
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Frankie SaenzThimna Mhlauli
15501600201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (25%)
KO/TKO
2 (40%)
2 (17%)
Submission
1 (20%)
7 (58%)
Decision
2 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Thimna Mhlauli62%
Frankie Saenz 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Thimna Mhlauli a 62% favorite over Frankie Saenz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Frankie Saenz's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1589 vs 1588), separated by just 1 points.

Frankie Saenz enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Frankie Saenz finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Thimna Mhlauli 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.