Combat Edge Intelligence

Garreth McLellan vs Tafon Nchukwi

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-7-0Record7-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'0"
72,0"Reach77"
185 lbsWeight190 lbs
FightFit MilitiaTeamTeam Lloyd Irvin

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Garreth McLellanNow 1583
If they win+16→ 1599
If they lose-16→ 1567
Tafon NchukwiNow 1588
If they win+16→ 1604
If they lose-16→ 1572

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1573 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1619 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.56
Sig. strikes / min
5.57
54%
Strike accuracy
53%
2.94
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.11
45%
Strike defense
54%
1.15
Takedown avg.
0.76
22%
Takedown accuracy
57%
35%
Takedown defense
65%
0.86
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Garreth McLellanTafon Nchukwi
15501600165020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

3 (23%)
KO/TKO
4 (57%)
9 (69%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (8%)
Decision
3 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Tafon Nchukwi63%
Garreth McLellan 37%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Tafon Nchukwi a 63% favorite over Garreth McLellan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1583 vs 1588), separated by just 5 points.

Garreth McLellan enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Garreth McLellan finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Tafon Nchukwi 57%.

Tafon Nchukwi carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.